Simplified Short-Run Price Forecasting Models for Wheat and Corn

John R. Robinson, Don E. Ethridge

Abstract


Models were developed which are simple enough for use by farmers and rural elevators in short-term price forecasting. The models express annual U.S. wheat and corn prices as a function of world stocks and projected levels of world production and consumption. The wheat model had a 6.6% average error in annul prices over the 12 years of data and the corn model averaged 1.2% error over 11 years of data. The models predicted 1986/87 prices to increase 6% for wheat and decrease 20% for corn using U.S.D.A. projections of production and consumption as of August, 1986. Price responsiveness indicators were also examined.


Keywords


forecasting model; wheat; corn

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