Profitability of a Dryland Grazing System Suitable for the Texas High Plains

Abstract

The declining availability of groundwater will eventually force farmers and ranchers on the Texas High Plains to move to dryland production practices.  Dryland production is inherently risky, and farmers need estimates of risk to effectively choose production practices and systems.  We determine the profitability of a specific dryland ranching system in this paper by simulating production and profits for a wide range of rainfall and price values drawn from historic record.  We find that the tobosagrass-WW-B.Dahl grazing system is profitable, but recognize that data limitations make this estimate an upper bound for the true expected profit for this system.  We identify research that is needed on forage grass renewal to make more realistic risk estimates of dryland production; research that can be incorporated directly into the economic assessment presented.  Specifically, we recognize the need for more estimates of dryland production practices at very low and very high precipitation levels.