Use of Expected Weather Information on Dryland Wheat Production in Texas High Plains


  • Naveen Musunuru
  • Eduardo Segarra
  • Wyatte Harman
  • Sukant Misra
  • Stephen J. Mass


Dryland agriculture, stochastic dominance, weather information


Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a commonly planted dryland crop in the Texas High Plains. The Texas High Plains is classified as a semiarid region with high degrees of variation in the amount of rainfall received in this area. Conditions of high climatic variability coupled with frequent droughts account for the low crop yields obtained in this region. Proper rainfall predictions before any production season provide valuable information to farmers to benefit from good years or reduce losses in bad years. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the economic effects of management practices under below and above average rainfall scenarios. Stochastic dominance with respect to a function (SDRF) was used to introduce risk and take into account the inherent variability of dryland production systems. Expected net revenues above variable costs were compared across different management practices. Predicted benefits to producers by adjusting crop management practices to anticipated weather was found to be in the range of $18 to $32 million per year. The results indicate that expected seasonal rainfall information has a major effect on the profitability of dryland wheat producers.




How to Cite

Musunuru, N., Segarra, E., Harman, W., Misra, S., & Mass, S. J. (2016). Use of Expected Weather Information on Dryland Wheat Production in Texas High Plains. Texas Journal of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 20, 10–21. Retrieved from



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